- Job Opening ID: 274567
- Job Network : –
- Job Family : –
- Category and Level : Consultants, CON
- Duty Station : ASHKHABAD
- Department/Office : Resident Coordinator System
- Date Posted : Mar 24, 2026
- Deadline : Apr 1, 2026
Result of Service
The incumbent is expected to work in coordination with the UN RCO (Foresight & CA Task Force lead/Economist) under the overall guidance of the UN Strategic Planning Officer / RCO Head of Office. The consultant shall regularly update the UN RCO on progress. The consultant will maintain close coordination with focal points from FAO, ILO, UNICEF, UNDP, UNECE, UNEP, UNESCO (and other agencies as relevant) to ensure technical consistency and integration across agrifood systems, labor markets, SRSP systems, and biodiversity/environment dimensions. Key deliverables will be validated with the UNCT / Foresight & CA Task Force and, where feasible, with national technical counterparts. Where relevant, structured exchanges with IFIs (ADB, World Bank, EBRD) will be facilitated by UN RCO to align scenario assumptions and action options with investment pipelines. All organizational and informational support for the expert will be facilitated by the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office. Based on the information received from UN RCO in Turkmenistan and following the guidelines, the Consultant shall be tasked to accomplish the following expected deliverables: 1.Inception Note (including results of UN/IFI scoping meetings and agreed workplan) 2.Integrated Water and Implicative Multi-sector Scenarios (2026–2050): Methodology Paper and Initial Scenarios Pack (including demographic assumptions) 3.Practical Trainings and Materials (2–3 half-day sessions) 4.Validation Summary / Mission Report and Revised Scenario Framework 5.Final Water Scenarios Pack and Priority Actions Package (Scenario-to-Actions Matrix and Policy Brief)
Work Location
Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
Expected duration
6 months
Duties and Responsibilities
Turkmenistan joined the United Nations on 2 March 1992 as a new independent state. Since then, the UN has been supporting Turkmenistan to achieve its national priorities, which from 2015 respond to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Turkmenistan’s development progress and SDG transitions are increasingly influenced by water availability and environmental stress, with rapid knock-on effects across multiple UNCT priorities. Water availability scenarios provide a practical common “driver” because they cascade across several SDG transitions “Jobs and Social Protection”, “Food security and water management” and “Climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution” and the following UNCT priorities: •Agrifood production and employment: irrigation constraints and drought frequency shift cropping patterns, yields and seasonality, affecting rural labor demand and underemployment. UN Country Analysis 2025 notes agriculture employs 43% of workers (around 1.2 million) with rural informality estimated at 90% and high salinization undermining productivity. It also highlights agricultural water stress exceeding renewable supply (agriculture averaging 111% of water stress, 2020–2022) and renewable water resources down to 3,425 m³/capita/year (2022). •Food security & nutrition: UNCA 2025 reports cereal import dependency 22.4% (2021–2023 avg.), rising stunting – from 7.1% in 2019 to 9.2% in 2024 (12% among poorest), and high maternal anaemia, signaling sensitivity to food price and income shocks. •Shock-responsive social protection: UNICEF SRSP readiness assessment highlights drought/flood as priority shocks and notes key constraints: unclear emergency indicators/triggers, narrow “emergency response” framing, limited socioeconomic indicators, and the need to strengthen data/delivery systems and coordination beyond a single ministry. •Biodiversity/land degradation: UNCA 2025 flags land degradation and salinization (68% of irrigated land salinized, and degraded land share at 17.7%), plus weak environmental monitoring/enforcement. •Regional/transboundary dimension and climate-security risks: regional evidence underscores declining flows and increasing competition around transboundary water; Central Asia projections include substantial reductions in basin flows by mid-century and heightened tension risks; UNCA also flags the Qosh-Tepa/Amu Darya implications and the need for basin coordination platforms. Given this interconnectedness, the consultancy supports a coordinated UNCT scenario exercise under the UNCT / Foresight & CA Task Force, integrating sector inputs (FAO, ILO, UNICEF, UNDP, UNECE, UNEP, UNESCO) within one shared framework and approach, rather than parallel workstreams. The assignment will also facilitate structured engagement with IFIs (ADB, World Bank, EBRD) to improve alignment with ongoing/planned investments and analytical work. Specifically, the water scenarios complement and will be conducted in parallel with the ILO assessment on cotton-sector impacts from water scarcity and climate change. The ILO assessment will translate water-stress trajectories into cotton productivity, rural employment, labour governance, and forced-mobilisation risks, informing shock-responsive social protection and Just Transition approaches within UNSDCF. The scenario work is directly relevant to implementation and adaptive management of the UNSDCF 2026–2030, by strengthening the evidence base, early warning/trigger logic, and cross-sector prioritization linked to: •UNSDCF Outcome 3 (environment, climate resilience, DRR): by strengthening integrated resource-risk analysis and supporting Output 3.1 (climate change adaptation and mitigation) and Output 3.2 (national climate early warning and DRR systems aligned with the Sendai Framework), including practical indicator sets, trigger logic, and “If–Then” actions. •UNSDCF Outcome 2 (inclusive and sustainable economic diversification and growth): by clarifying how water stress affects productivity, investment choices and resilience pathways, including implications for Output 2.3 (formal, decent and secure employment in the transforming economy). •UNSDCF Outcome 4 (equitable access to quality, inclusive services and social protection): by linking scenario triggers to scalable anticipatory/shock-responsive options and system readiness, including implications for Output 4.3 (increased coverage and sustainability of social protection). By generating a shared scenario framework and a prioritized, scenario-tagged action package, the consultancy will help the UNCT and partners identify robust options, trade-offs, and sequencing to accelerate progress toward UNSDCF outcomes and outputs while applying a Leave No One Behind lens. The consultant will deliver a short-term assignment (40 working days) structured in the following tasks. All tasks shall reflect cross sector dynamics affecting LNOB groups and fiscal considerations: Task 1: Scoping, coordination meetings, and inception (remote) Before drafting the methodology paper, the consultant will: •Conduct scoping and alignment meetings with the UN RCO and focal points from FAO, ILO, UNICEF, UNDP, UNECE, UNEP, UNESCO to confirm objectives, intended users, geography, time horizons, and priority questions. •Conduct coordination meetings with IFIs and partners to align assumptions, datasets and investment pipelines, including: ADB, World Bank, EBRD (and others as advised by UN RCO). •Conduct initial scoping meetings with key national counterparts (as feasible and coordinated by RCO), including the State Committee on Water Management, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, and the Ministry of Agriculture, to confirm priority policy questions, data availability, institutional roles in water allocation/monitoring, and feasibility of potential indicators. •Compile and review key data, trends, drivers, and risks affecting Turkmenistan’s water availability and demand, drawing on the provided evidence generated or being generated by UN agencies (including water-savings technologies in agriculture and soil salinity mapping, transboundary dynamics, infrastructure efficiency and water management, pathways from water availability to food security/agrifood systems and water management (water–food–energy nexus) (FAO); biodiversity subsidies analysis (UNDP); shock responsive social protection (SRSP) readiness assessment, CODI assessment, Generation 2050 (UNICEF); assessment on cotton-sector impacts from water scarcity (ILO); developing projections for future water use and the National Water Conservation Program, dam safety and nature based solutions (NBS) as cost-effective and multifunctional measures to address food and water security, biodiversity loss and climate change (UNECE); cryosphere monitoring and water scenarios in Central Asia (UNESCO); regional water risk literature (OSCE, IFIs etc) and UN Country Analysis). •Produce an Inception Note (scope, approach, proposed scenario set, consultation plan, draft indicator list, data sources, workplan and timeline). Task 2: Develop Integrated Water and Implicative Multi-sector Scenarios Methodology Paper and Initial Scenarios (remote) Building on the scoping phase, the consultant will: •Draft an Integrated Water and Implicative Multi-sector Scenarios Methodology Paper that integrates: -water availability and consumption/allocation scenario logic (climate stress, transboundary dynamics, infrastructure efficiency and water management, salinity/land degradation, demand growth); -demographic assumptions and trajectories (e.g., population growth/age structure, urbanization, internal migration) as scenario inputs affecting water demand, service needs, labor markets and vulnerability; -cascading pathways from water availability to food security/agrifood systems and water management (water–food–energy nexus), jobs and livelihoods, migration patterns, SRSP trigger and response links, and biodiversity/ecosystem services; -critical indicators and variables for scenario tracking (environmental, economic, social, governance/institutional). •Prepare initial integrated scenario set(s) consisting of: -core water availability scenarios (e.g., baseline / moderate stress / severe stress), and -implicative (impact) scenario narratives for each linked area (nexus/food, jobs, SRSP, biodiversity), explicitly showing how each water scenario could plausibly translate into different outcomes for people and systems, given demographic trajectories. •Prepare a draft cross-sector system map and assumptions register for validation. •Consider LNOB populations pathways, including those at risks of forced labour, internal and outward migration, within scenarios (aligned with Generation 2050 demographic projections and other evidence). Task 3: Practical trainings and materials (2–3 half-day sessions) (remote and/or in-person) To increase ownership and support early validation, the consultant will deliver 2–3 half-day, hands-on trainings for the Foresight & CA Task Force and interested agencies (FAO/ ILO/ UNICEF/ UNDP / UNECE/UNEP/UNESCO) and the national partners validation, using the shared scenario framework and datasets. Suggested modules: 1.Scenario logic, uncertainty, and systems mapping for water-driven cascades (nexus, jobs, SRSP, biodiversity) 2.Indicators, early warning thresholds and “If–Then” triggers (early warning – decision – response) 3.Translating scenarios into prioritized actions and programming/financing narratives (optional) The consultant will provide slides, templates, exercises, and a short facilitation/how-to note for reuse. Task 4: Validation summary / mission report and revised scenario framework (in-country mission – optional; otherwise online) •Validate and refine the methodology, scenarios, indicators and impact pathways through UNCT / Task Force review and consultations with national counterparts (including the State Committee on Water Management, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, and the Ministry of Agriculture, as feasible; in-country mission combined with training). •Produce a Validation Summary / Mission Report and a Revised Scenario Framework (finalized scenarios with a revised system map and agreed indicator set and trigger logic). Task 5: Priority actions package and integration for programming (remote) •Working with focal points (FAO/ILO/UNICEF/UNDP/UNECE/UNEP/UNESCO) and reflecting IFIs’ inputs where relevant, translate the validated scenarios into a consolidated package of priority actions across four pillars: 1.water management, food security and agrifood production/diversification; 2.jobs/livelihoods, including risks of forced labour; 3.shock-responsive social protection; 4.biodiversity/environment co-benefits and trade-offs. •Classify actions as no-regrets, adaptive/triggered, and transformational, including feasibility considerations under fiscal constraints. •Ensure outputs are consistent with the wider UNCT foresight approach and are ready to inform UNCA/UNSDCF programming, joint programmes and policy dialogue. •Prepare a scenario to actions annex focused on LNOB populations prioritized in the UNSDCF.
Qualifications/special skills
Bachelor’s degree in environmental science, climate adaptation, environmental economics, or related field is required. Master’s degree in environmental science, climate adaptation, environmental economics, or related field is desirable. •At least 8 years of experience in foresight/scenario planning (including systems-thinking approaches) and translating scenarios into actionable priorities and recommendations is required. •Strong knowledge of water–food–energy nexus and climate/environmental risk in arid contexts is required. (Central Asia experience is desirable). •Demonstrated experience in evaluation of environmental shocks and linking them to jobs/livelihoods and shock-responsive social protection (triggers, targeting, delivery feasibility) is required. •Proven experience delivering practical trainings and producing UN-style analytical/policy products is desirable. •Demonstrated ability to operationalize foresight within UN programming and evaluation in multi-stakeholder settings. Experience working with the UN is desirable.
Languages
Fluency in English language is required. Knowledge of Russian language is desirable.
Additional Information
Not available.
No Fee
THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.
