PhD: Climate uncertainty and complexity of compound events and implications for the water system in Eastern England

Background

The impacts of compound events exceed the sum of individual impacts of underlying climatic and non-climatic drivers. These impacts often propagate through natural and man-made water systems but in complex and uncertain ways. The challenge for risk assessment and adaptation decision making is envisaging diverse plausible compound events, defining and mapping their relationships with the water system, and identifying relevant management options. Methodological developments in narratives/storylines and Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) can help address all three dimensions. Focusing on a real-world case study in eastern England, this research advances climate change risk assessment and adaptation science with real-world impact.

PhD opportunity

Uncertainty and complexity are crucial in climate change risk assessments. Increasing climate extremes and potential complex interactions could cause unexpected and severe impacts. The challenge is to understand how these compound extreme events (including High Impact Low Likelihood events) could interact and affect natural and human systems. Combining narratives, systems dynamics and Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty approaches offer a useful approach to address this challenge. Qualitative narratives help characterise future uncertainties while observations, projections and expert judgement help quantitatively represent uncertainty to drive future model simulations of impacts. DMDU provides an assess-risk-of-policy approach to structure uncertainties, risk management options, modelling approaches to help assess the performance of options against stakeholder-prioritised performance metrics. Building and applying such interdisciplinary understanding will require developing skills in climate data analysis, systems modelling and DMDU. The collaborative efforts of Dr. Ajay Bhave, Prof. Amanda Maycock and Prof. Suraje Dessai (University of Leeds), Dr. Geoff Darch (Anglian Water) and Prof. Patrick Reed (Cornell University), will bring together the diverse expertise required to help conduct such interdisciplinary research, provide training opportunities, help develop skills and generate impact through a real-world case study in eastern England.

Research questions:
How can narratives help qualitatively and quantitatively explore plausible future compound climate events and associated uncertainties?

How could systems modelling and DMDU approaches be used to assess complex risks from plausible compound events to the water system in eastern England and evaluate diverse risk management strategies?

How does the improved understanding of uncertainties and risks associated with compound events contribute to the holistic understanding of climate risks to the water sector?

Applicant Profile

Students with a background in water resources and/or applied climate science with a strong interest for learning new skills and conducting interdisciplinary research.