Expertise: Data Science, Finance, Financial Engineering, Statistics, Mathematics
Expertise Group: Accounting, Auditing & Statistics
Consultant Source: National
TOR Keywords: Data Science, Finance, Financial Engineering, Statistics, Mathematics
Objective and Purpose of the Assignment
ADB’s Central West Urban and Water Division is supporting the Government of Pakistan to promote more
livable cities using integrated solutions for urban planning and development. A robust portfolio and
pipeline of projects and technical assistance grants for delivery in 2021-2025 is based on ADB’s Country
Partnership Strategy (2021-2025) and ADB corporate Strategy 2030, as well as government’s development
strategies and recent sector policies. The scope of the ensuing projects will support performance
improvement of utility and service providers, enhance integrated urban planning, governance and
management, as well as climate resilience.
The transaction technical assistance facility (TA facility) will support project preparation to ensuing
urban development and water investment projects, including the proposed PAK: Partial Credit Guarantee
for Digital Urban Infrastructure. The project responds to the Government of Pakistan’s request for ADB
assistance with the planned issuance of a Panda Bond in 2025. The total proposed bond amount is $250
million, with $150 million of the guarantee to be supported by ADB and the remaining $125 million by
AIIB. The complementary guarantee from ADB would bolster market trust, enhance credit ratings, and
optimize financing costs. The bond issuance is a key component of Pakistan’s broader strategy to
diversify external financing sources and enhance its global financial standing. The guarantee by ADB
helps mobilize private capital in sustainable development, promotes the development of local currency
bond markets in Asia and enhances regional cooperation, thereby strengthening ADB’s role as a financial
facilitator. The proposed Panda Bond will finance sustainable urban infrastructure projects.
Scope of Work
The consultant will:
• Data Collection & Cleaning: Extract and preprocess historical and real-time bond market data in China,
including prices, yields, spreads, ratings, and macroeconomic indicators from sources such as Bloomberg,
Wind Information, or public databases.
• Yield Curve Analysis: Construct, model, and visualize government and corporate bond yield curves using
techniques like Nelson-Siegel, polynomial fitting, or spline interpolation.
• Risk Metrics Computation: Calculate duration, convexity, value at risk (VaR), and credit spreads for
fixed income instruments.
• Modeling & Forecasting: Apply regression analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), or machine
learning methods to assess interest rate movements, credit risk, or bond pricing dynamics.
• Scenario Testing: Conduct stress tests and simulations based on macroeconomic shifts, monetary policy
scenarios, credit rating, and various levels of coverage by the proposed guarantees.
• Reporting & Visualization: Build dashboards and visual reports to communicate trends, forecasts, and
investment signals using tools such as Python (Matplotlib, Plotly), Tableau, or Power BI.
• Collaboration: Liaise with AIIB team in Beijing, regulatory authority, rating agency, bond
underwriter, and potential investors to integrate findings into broader bond issuance and guarantee
structuring strategies.
The assignment is exclusively home-based desk work; there is no envisaged travel to Pakistan.
Detailed Tasks and/or Expected Output
• Clean, structured datasets ready for modeling and analysis
• Yield curve models with interactive visualizations
• Reports on bond market trends, credit risk, and interest rate scenarios
• Minutes of meetings carried out with key stakeholders in Beijing
• Analytical tools for risk metrics (e.g., duration calculators, spread monitors)
• Final report summarizing methodology, findings, and strategic recommendations
• Implement ML models to predict financial risks
• Communicate results clearly in bilingual formats to technical and business teams
Minimum Qualification Requirements
Bachelor’s or Master’s degree in Finance, Statistics, Economics, Data Science, or related field.
Proficiency in Python, SQL, and statistical modeling; familiarity with R or MATLAB is a plus. The
consultant shall have a good working knowledge of data mining in financial data. Full proficiency in
both Mandarin and English is required. Excellent communication skills and a proactive analytical
mindset, with the ability to translate quantitative findings into actionable insights. Only nationals of
the People’s Republic of China may apply for this position.
Minimum General Experience: 3 Years
Minimum Specific Experience (relevant to assignment): 1 Years
