Expertise: Harmful Algal Bloom Expert
Expertise Group: Biological Sciences & Ecology
Consultant Source: International
TOR Keywords:
Objective and Purpose of the Assignment
Purpose and objective of assignment
The assignment is a contributing to the Thailand Country Program Component of the proposed ADB regional
program for the Gulf of Thailand Titled: Developing a Blue Economy Adaptation Investment Plan for a
Climate Stressed Gulf of Thailand Large Marine Ecosystem. Specifically the assignment will support the
Development of Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) monitoring and early warning system for the Gulf of Thailand.
The HAB development program will require three stages for its development, with the proposed terms of
reference supporting stage 1. The three stages are
(i) Stage one – developing a strategy for the design of a harmful agal bloom monitoring system, which
includes an early warning function – funded under this Short Term Technical Assistance
(ii) Stage two – detailed technical design and investment costs for establishing and operating a harmful
algal bloom monitoring system in the Gulf of Thailand – funded under the proposed ADB TRTA for the GOT
(Thailand country component).
(iii) Stage three – investment implementation and operational capability systems implemented to be
financed under the proposed ADB investment Titled: Developing a Blue Economy Adaptation Investment Plan
for a Climate Stressed Gulf of Thailand Large Marine Ecosystem.
Background to proposed GOT Investment Rationale
The Gulf of Thailand (GOT) is primarily bordered by Thailand, with smaller parts along the coastlines of
Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia. The GOT plays a critical role in regional trade, tourism, and natural
resources. It is rich in marine biodiversity, with coral reefs, mangrove forests, and seagrass beds that
support various species of fish, mollusks, and marine mammals. Globally the Gulf of Thailand has been a
highly productive wild capture fishery that contributes over 50percent of Thailand’s Wild Capture
landing.
As global temperatures rise and climate patterns shift, the GOT is facing various challenges, many of
which are related to rising sea levels, ocean warming, extreme weather events, and environmental
degradation – threatening its ecosystem. The interconnected nature of the GOT’s waters means that
activities in one country—such as overfishing, industrial discharge, or coastal development—can have
significant environmental and economic repercussions on neighboring countries. Addressing these
challenges requires collaborative action and joint initiatives among countries along the GOT and a far
wider consideration of climate change impacts that extend beyond sea level rise and tropical storm risk.
The triple threats to ocean health. Rising sea temperature and associated heatwaves, acidification, and
deoxygenation are poorly understood and underrepresented in climate risk assessment and adaptation
planning. These threats are projected to accelerate with significant consequences to marine and coastal
economies. Projection indicate that these threats will precede the current climate risk shoreline impact
focus on sea level rise (SLR), tropical storms, overfishing, destruction of marine habitat, and coastal
nutrient loading and pollution. A study indicates that 100% of the ocean surface is acidifying, 85%–95%
is impacted by rising sea temperatures, 50%–60% is experiencing oxygen loss, and 40% faces declines in
primary productivity.
Impacts on marine biomass. Climate change, along with overfishing and habitat disruption, has
drastically reduced marine biomass in the GOT to less than 10% of the 1970 levels, significantly
altering the aquatic food web. Coral bleaching, first reported in 2010, has become more frequent with
rising sea temperatures, leading to a nearly 100% bleaching rate and an 80% decline in fish catch since
- Higher sea temperatures and nutrient inflow have increased algal blooms, endangering food chains,
public health, and tourism, particularly in the eastern shores of the upper GOT.
Rapid loss of fish stocks and fish catch. Projections suggest that further reductions of the GOT fish
stock may exceed 30% by 2040 and 80% by 2080. The GOT being a relatively shallow semi enclosed sea is
severely exposed to marine heat waves with nine heat wave events occurring since January 2022, plus
continuous extreme heat environment from the period from August 2023 to March 2024. Extremes in heat and
deoxygenation have more significant impact than those arising from slow decadal change. Storm derived
flood flows entering the GOT add nutrients that, in combination with higher temperatures, increase algal
blooms, posing substantial risk to the aquaculture sector and seafood consumers. If the wider GOT
remained as an open access fishery, projected extreme heat scenarios would result in future biomass
declines of up to 70%, leading to a 65% reduction in catch with lower value. This would cause financial
losses to fishers, especially coastal fishers. The catch of Short Mackerel, an iconic fish within
Thailand food culture, declined substantially in 2023 that the country had to rely on imported sources
as local catch dropped to less than 10% of the level five years previously due to declining abundance
and reduced fish sizes. The mackerel migratory and spawning behavior has also reportedly changed in
response to changed water parameters. Viet Nam’s southwestern fishing zone in the GOT has the lowest
catch per unit effort of all the Viet Nam EEZ and has experienced the largest and fastest decline in
catch. Without rapid adaptation and strengthened management, the decline in marine biomass is projected
to accelerate, fish catch, and prices will decline further as lower quality and size fish dominate the
catch, leaving lower employment and more vulnerable fishing communities. For fishing to be sustained
within a climate impacted marine environment, substantial change is required.
Negative impacts on livelihood and economies. The future of the livelihoods and economies of the coastal
and marine sectors surrounding GOT is currently not optimistic. Further delays in adapting to the
combined effects of overfishing, habitat destruction and accelerating climate change will see larger
economic displacement across the fisheries, tourism and wider natural resource sectors. Potential
seafood catch is expected to decline due to increased temperatures, SLR, ocean warming, and ocean
acidification. The 2012 Climate Vulnerable Forum estimated that if the temperature increases by 0.5ºC–0.8
ºC, the damage to fishing activities in Viet Nam (including marine and inland fishing) will be about $
3.25 billion in 2030 (based on 2010 comparative prices). GOT tourism (including mainland, marine, and
islands of Thailand, mainland and islands of Cambodia, and Phu Quoc Island in Vietnam) is a significant
economic driver that faces greater uncertainty of its destination products and services linked to
coastal and marine ecosystems.
The southwest fisheries region of Viet Nam (located mostly within GOT) is a focal region where sector
reforms are required to lift the European Union (EU)’s imposed yellow card for illegal, unregulated, and
unreported fishing. Viet Nam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development introduced strong measures
to prevent illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing, such as installation of the vessel-monitoring
system, and law enforcement. However, significant gaps remain in the knowledge related to future risks
to ocean on the wild capture and mariculture sectors in the GOT. These risks need to be managed and
reported before Viet Nam can expect EU to lift the yellow card.
Alignment with government strategies. The proposed TA is aligned with the national adaptation plan (NAP)
of Thailand. The Government of Thailand’s NAP is structured around geographic vulnerability mapping
across a total of six sectors including (i) water, (ii) agriculture and food security (including
fisheries), (iii) tourism, (iv) public health, (v) natural resources management, and (vi) human
settlement and infrastructure. The proposed TA is aligned with all these six sectors with focus on item
(ii). The proposed TA is also aligned with Viet Nam’s NAP 2021-2030 which prioritizes the management of
economic and social damages arising from typhoon, tropical depressions, and SLR that are linked to
coastal communities and infrastructure.
The proposed technical assistance is aligned with the following impacts: (i) adaptability and resilience
of ocean ecosystems, marine fisheries, tourism, and public health to climate strengthened in Thailand.
The proposed TA output will contribute to the outcome of: resilience of marine ecosystem and food system
in GOT improved.
Scope of Work
The assignment will support the following output:
“A strategic investment plan for identification of harmful algal bloom risk and supporting early warning
system for Thailand prepared.” This output will define the scope of a strategic investment plan (SIP) to
develop an algal bloom identification and early warning systems to assess toxicity risk to mariculture
and public health. The SIP will include an assessment of technical and scientific capability and gaps,
priority research and needs for operational capacity strengthening, availability and adequacy of current
monitoring systems for algal bloom early warning. An assessment of benefits from improved technologies
and more cost-effective surveillance compared to the existing one will be included. The SIP will
identify financial, technical, and human resources requirements (i) for increased real time
identification of both environmental conditions and algal presence using molecular, environmental DNA,
and microscopy technologies; (ii) to monitor water quality parameters by identifying and mapping
nutrient sources and flows and the use of pollutant plume models; and (iii) with the use of earth
observation and satellite imagery with artificial intelligence to monitor and predict expected and
actual pollutant plumes, algal presence and density along with potential toxicity zones. A preliminary
assessment of the risks from bacterial and viral infection of shellfish will be included in the SIP so
that opportunities to monitor and test for these are included in the agal bloom surveillance program.
The strategy will define the need for:
(i) real time identification of both environmental conditions and harmful algal presence through use of
techniques such as molecular assays targeting environmental DNA, artificial intelligence, and microscopy.
(ii) monitoring of water quality parameters through the identification and mapping of nutrient sources
and flows and the use of pollutant plume models, and an assessment of earth observation and satellite
imagery using artificial intelligence to monitor and predict expected and actual pollutant plumes,
harmful algal presence and density along with potential toxicity zones
(iii) testing of key seafood species, particularly shellfish, for the presence of known marine toxins
that represent a risk to human health
(iv) a preliminary assessment of the risks from bacterial and viral infection of shellfish will be
included in the strategy so that opportunities to monitor and test for these are included in the agal
bloom surveillance program.
It is envisaged that the harmful algal monitoring system needed, and potential options, will be based on
current global best practice and experience. This will draw upon international guidelines including the
recently published joint FAO, IOC, IAEA document – ‘Joint technical guidance for the implementation of
early warning systems for harmful algal blooms’. Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 690.
Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc4794en.
Detailed Tasks and/or Expected Output
Outputs
The expert will be responsible for the following outputs:
(i) An assessment of the current capability in the development of algal bloom early warning systems
identifying strengths and gaps plus opportunities to introduce innovation and cost-effective techniques
and technologies. The assessment will need to identify skill gaps and development priorities.
(ii) A detailed framework to develop or establish including capacity development, additional diagnostic
skills and technology options, laboratory systems and services, database and data search capabilities,
surveillance technique and capacity, toxicity testing and supporting protocols algal bloom
identification, surveillance, toxicity risk assessment, and early warning system establishment including
water samples testing and signaling of seafood risks, etc.
Tasks
The expert shall undertake the following tasks or additional tasks identified during work planning:
(i) Prior to mobilization identify the expected range of agencies and experts that need to be consulted
with and provide these to the national consultant to ensure the identification and meeting arrangements
are established in advance.
(ii) Provide a briefing to Department of Climate Change and Environment (DCCE) and Office of Natural
Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (ONEP), Department of Marine and Coastal Resources
(DMCR), Department of Fisheries (DOF), and Public Health representatives covering the HAB early warning
systems within input from the biotoxicity expert and response components of the HAB early warning system
as part of a mission kick off meeting with the oceanic institutes, government laboratories and academia
and private laboratories involved in algal identification and proliferation to algal to develop a clear
understanding of current knowledge capacity and systems.
(iii) Meet with key personnel from the fisheries sector (including the private sector), tourism sector,
and public health to identify any data or potential inputs to an algal bloom management program.
(iv) Draft a proposed end to end system of an early warning and seafood safety system for algal blooms
with recommendations at each stage for the range of technologies and approaches available.
(v) Provide a briefing seminar to key individuals actively involved or potentially involved in the algal
bloom management systems – use the seminar to identify gaps or suggestions/preferences for the range of
options that may be available.
(vi) Based on feedback prepare a proposed step wise strategy for development and implementation of an
algal bloom early warning system with expected skills/human resources requirements, recommendations for
technologies and laboratory support, recommendations for field sampling of water and seafood, potential
use of earth observation techniques, areas for cost recovery and overall system management including the
option of internation certification. Include a basic term of reference or specification of goods
required.
(vii) Provide a debriefing to Department of Climate Change and Environment (DCCE) and Office of Natural
Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (ONEP) on the proposal along with ADB Ocean Health team
and incorporate feedback.
(viii) Submit draft final report to the Program team leader for review and comment.
Minimum Qualification Requirements
Part 1: PhD in ecology, biological sciences or related field. The successful candidate will ideally
have experience in the following:
(i) Experience is marine algal ecology and sea food safety.
(ii) Researched and identified microalgae and the risks to sea food.
(iii) Extensive knowledge of phytoplankton communities.
(iv) Worked on harmful algae marine invertebrates.
(v) Experience in the use of advanced molecular techniques including environmental DNA detection, with
high-throughput sequencing, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) / droplet digital polymerase
chain reaction (ddPCR), DNA methylation / epigenetics, and small genome and transcriptome assembly.
(vi) Application of molecular diagnostic tools for seafood risk to human health.
(vii) Awareness and understanding of emerging techniques for sensing and artificial intelligence in
algal bloom seafood risk management.
(viii) An awareness of the role of anthropogenic and climate change influences algal proliferation and
impacts.
(ix) A proven ability to work along the entire early warning system from algal identification through to
predictive modelling of algal bloom presence and risks incentives.
Part 2: Post Graduate Degree in Analytical Chemistry with experience in:
(i) Experience in the analysis of marine toxins
(ii) Researched harmful microalgae and the risks they pose to seafood consumers
(iii) Extensive knowledge of marine toxin analysis, especially quantitation of regulated toxin classes
(iv) Experience in the use of analytical instrumentation, especially liquid chromatography tandem mass
spectrometry
(v) Awareness and understanding of rapid testing tools for marine toxins, including lateral flow assays
and ELISA
(vi) A good understanding of emerging seafood toxins, such as CTX and TTX
(vii) A proven understanding of the requirements needed for analysis as part of routine marine toxin
monitoring programme
Minimum General Experience: 15 Years
Minimum Specific Experience (relevant to assignment): 10 Years
