Rogun Hydropower Plant Tajikistan

Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Tajikistan 🇹🇯

Objective and Purpose of the Assignment

The Rogun HPP is a large project (3,780MW) under construction located on the Vakhsh River located about 110 km East-Northeast of Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan. It is a Project that will have a large reservoir capable of providing seasonal regulation. It will supply firm energy during the winter months when demand for electricity is the highest in Tajikistan and will allow for exports of clean electricity to the Central Asia (CA) region and beyond. The Project could play the role of a balancing plant for Tajikistan and the broader Central Asia region to help integrate significant new solar PV and wind generation capacity into the network. The Rogun HPP was initially designed in the 1970s as part of the development of the Vakhsh River cascade for integrated economic development in the Central Asian republics of the Soviet Union. The Rogun site is located upstream of the existing Nurek HPP. The five other HPPs located downriver from Nurek are all run-of-river schemes with no significant water storage. Construction of Rogun HPP began in 1982 and was then interrupted by political changes resulting from the independence of Tajikistan and the other Central Asia countries. The World Bank in 2011 provided funding to the Government of Tajikistan to conduct a Technical and Economic Assessment Study and an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment. The Government of Tajikistan proceeded with construction without development partners’ involvement. In 2023 a technical assistance grant was approved by World Bank to improve the financial and commercial frameworks of the Rogun HPP Project and to enhance its technical, environmental and social sustainability. A consortium of international development finance institutions led by World bank and including Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signaled their intention to support the financing of the project. ADB is committed under Strategy 2030 operating priority 3 to support its Developing Member Countries to ensure a comprehensive approach to build climate and disaster resilience. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development and incorporating adaptation measures in the design.

Scope of Work

The Specialist will undertake work to analyze climate change risk faced by Rogun HPP and the interaction between climate change, climate-responsive HPP operation, and downstream water resource demand as a 2nd phase following initial due diligence of ADB on available project documentation. The specialist will build from existing assessments undertaken by ADB and stakeholders filling important knowledge gaps.

Detailed Tasks and/or Expected Output

Output 1: Analyze downscaled CMIP6 General Circulation Model (GCM) to understand projected changes in precipitation and heat trends across climate change scenarios in the Rogun dam catchment area. This includes assessment of indicators for likelihood of heatwave and extreme precipitation events. Output 2: Undertake an estimate of the Probable Maximum Flood level in the Rogun dam catchment through event-based simulation modelling factoring in changes to projections for extreme precipitation events and changing hydrological processes due to climate change. Output 3: Estimate the likelihood of annual discharge change based on climate change projections to understand the likelihood of Rogun HPP project economics being negatively affected by declining capacity factor driven by climate change impacts on hydrology. Output 4: Conduct a first order analysis of present and future glacial lake outburst flood risk based on review of studies from reputable sources.

Minimum Qualification Requirements

The expert should have a graduate degree (preferably post graduate degree) in meteorology, climatology, hydrology or related field, with at least 15 years’ general experience and 10 years’ experience in climate and/or hydrology modeling. Experience in conducting downscaled climate assessments to inform project design and risk analysis, particularly in the region, is highly preferred. Past experience in supporting developing countries with climate and disaster risk assessments and identification of climate adaptation measures in the energy sector will be important.

POSITION TYPE

ORGANIZATION TYPE

EXPERIENCE-LEVEL

DEGREE REQUIRED

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