Details
Landslides produce an estimated €6Bn in damage to global infrastructure and cause ~14000 deaths per year worldwide. However, given the poorer coverage of the global south, these figures are also likely to be underestimates. Improving our understanding of landslide risk is therefore of critical economic and societal importance. Our current understanding of landslide risk has largely focused on defining and monitoring locations considered at risk from landslides, whether slow-moving or catastrophic. This has greatly improved our understanding of where landslides are likely to occur, however, we lack comparable understanding and progress on when these landslides are likely to occur. This critical knowledge gap places significant uncertainty on landslide risk management, which this project will seek to address.
Our preliminary database1–3 compilation and analysis of global landslide timing reveals a profound diurnal pattern, namely that the vast majority of landslides occur between 15:00 and 23:00, regardless of their global location, time of year, or climate (Figure 1). This yet unacknowledged strong constraint on the daily timing of landslides suggests an important role of daily temperature variations on e.g., pore water pressure and water viscosity in triggering landslides.
This project will seek to explore this important constraint in landslide timing and determine the likely mechanisms and their variation, across the globe. In this context, the project will consider how landslide characteristics (size, materials, failure mechanism and, potentially, history) and environmental variables (terrain and landscape characteristics, as well as meteorological parameters) influence the observed failure timings. This is key to enhance landslide predictability. Specifically, this project will ask 1) how strong are the global signals on landslide occurrence at sub-daily, daily, seasonal, and annual timescales, 2) what are the key drivers, and how identification varies across temporal scales, and 3) how can this new understanding on temporal constraints better inform our understanding and modelling of landslide risk. This project’s unique focus on landslide timing will provide much-needed progress on timing controls on landslide risk, directly relevant to industry partners, especially within engineering and insurance sectors.
Project Highlights:
Improve our understanding of landslide prediction, by focusing on the temporal aspects of landslide susceptibility. The identification of preferred failure timings as well as the underpinning controls will represent a step-change in landslide risk analysis. The student will gain a key set of analytical skills that will be of high relevance and importance for a future career in research, private or public sectors.
For further information on this project and details of how to apply to it please visit https://centa.ac.uk/studentship/2025-b21-timing-is-critical-improving-our-understanding-of-global-landslide-risks/ Further information on how to apply for a CENTA studentship can be found on the CENTA website: https://centa.ac.uk/
Funding notes:
This project is offered through the CENTA3 DTP, with funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Funding covers an annual stipend, tuition fees (at home-fee level) and Research Training Support Grant.
Our project-based studentships are open to all applicants who meet the academic requirements (at least a 2:1 at UK BSc level or at least a pass at UK MSc level or equivalent).
For further information please visit https://centa.ac.uk/.
UKRI allows international students to be eligible for studentships but only for a maximum of 30% of the cohort. Please be aware that CENTA funding does not cover any additional costs relating to moving to and residing in the UK. All international applicants must ensure they can fulfil the University of Birmingham’s international student entry requirements, which includes English language requirements.  For further information please visit https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/postgraduate/pgt/requirements-pgt/international/index.aspx.
References
1. Froude, M. J. & Petley, D. N. Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 18, 2161–2181 (2018).
2. Kirschbaum, D. B., Adler, R., Hong, Y., Hill, S. & Lerner-Lam, A. A global landslide catalog for hazard applications: method, results, and limitations. Nat. Hazards 52, 561–575 (2010).
3. Kirschbaum, D., Stanley, T. & Zhou, Y. Spatial and temporal analysis of a global landslide catalog. Geomorphology 249, 4–15 (2015).
