Background
Previous studies for the region show that the future development of water availability in the region is decisively shaped by climate change. Furthermore, as the river basin is located in a region where there is uncertainty in precipitation trends, it is very important to apply the latest generation of climate scenarios and to carefully compare the selected climate model runs with observed trends. The current assignment shall build on experience and knowledge of preceding studies on similar topics, such as the ones prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany, as well as by FAO HQ on Climate Change for Somalia and by FAO-SWALIM on hydrological modelling of the Shabelle River, where relevant.
However, there are still hardly any regionalized climate scenarios for the latest climate model generation of the IPCC available for the region. One of the few exceptions is the data from the ISIMIP project (The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project), which is coordinated at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany. Depending on demand, the expert shall use ISIMIP data with a resolution of up to 1-10 km. This high resolution can be particularly important for the mountainous parts of the upper catchment area. As hydrology is very sensitive to climate input, corrections based on observations are also necessary. A major focus of the project will therefore be on the careful analysis and generation of the climate data that will be used. Therefore, a qualified expert on hydro-climatic modeling is required to run the operation on analyzing the available data to generate information on water availability trends in juba river and climate scenarios to run hydraulic modelling in juba basin.
The eco-hydrological model SWIM shall be used which allows to transform the described climate runs into changed water flows. It integrates the important vegetation and hydrological processes in order to be able to simulate trends in water availability and hydroclimatic extremes until 2100. Unlike many other hydrological modelling systems, it also allows the rapid processing of large amounts of data, which is important for climate impact simulations.
The data generated by this hydro-climatic modelling shall cover the time period from 1971-2100, with a daily resolution to assess climate change impacts in the future. It is therefore different from data to be provided by a flood forecasting system, as flood forecast data are normally only covering the next few days or weeks. Instead of flood forecasting, the climate change data prepared by the consultant shall serve as informatioin for strategic planning of adaptation measures such as irrigation systems, improved land management and dams.
All climate and hydrological data generated through the hydro-climatic modelling for the Juba shall be made available to the client at the end of the project for further use also in other modelling exercises. The data could also be applied in the flood forecast system to test the flood risk under climate change conditions. In case that there is a demand, data shall be provided in the desired format.
Overall tasks of the hydro-climatic modelling
- The hydro climatic modelling prepares scenarios of future water availability under climate change conditions for the Juba River basin spanning Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.
- The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrologic regime of the Juba River will be investigated. This analysis will be quantitative and based on relevant existing climate change scenarios and studies. It will consider recent climate change studies for Somalia and the Juba basin such as those prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the upcoming FAO HQ climate studies and hydrological modelling undertaken by FAO-SWALIM and others for the Juba and Shabelle river basins.
More specifically the tasks of the experts are:
Climate change analysis
- Based on the latest generation of IPCC climate scenarios, data from three scenarios ranging from moderate climate change to severe climate change for the target region are analysed and visualized (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5).
- The analysis shall build on synergies with the upcoming climate change study from FAO HQ and recent studies prepared by PIK.
- Develop Hydroâclimatic scenarios at the basin scale
Hydrological analysis
- For each climate change scenario, simulation results from 10 GCM – runs are downscaled and bias-corrected and processed as input for an eco-hydrological model. This model is used to calculate changes in water availability and hydrological extremes such as floods and droughts driven by the climate scenarios. The ecohydrological model has a resolution of 100 m and it considers all relevant hydrological fluxes such as infiltration, surface runoff, soil moisture, groundwater recharge, evaporation and flow of water in the river, vegetation growth for natural and agricultural plants, and also water management such as irrigation and reservoirs.
- In addition, for locations in the river system provided by the client, climate change impacts for planned reservoirs (development of inflow volumes and lake evaporation) are quantified and presented***.***
- Simulating the hydrological impact of climate change
Timeframe of the Work: The duration of the assignment will 12 months. The control points of this contract are the deliverables mentioned below.
Expected key deliverables:
- An inception report detailing a clear approach for carrying out the tasks, methodologies required, deliverables and time line.
- Maps and graphs presenting mean changes in temperature, precipitation, and radiation in the basin, including analysis of extreme values (e.g., meteorological drought, heat extremes).
- Maps, tables and graphs on the development of water quantities and extremes in the catchment and for specific location in the river system as requested by the client Final report describing all deliverables, lessons learned, and recommendations for further use of the climate impact assessment data in basin diagnostics and river basin management and planning.
Institutional Arrangement: The consultant will work closely to undertake the assignment under direct supervision of Ministry of Energy and Water Resources.
Qualifications and Experience
- Team Leader (international) should have at least Masterâs degree in water resources, natural resources management, hydrology, environment, or closely related field; and at least 20 years of relevant experience in integrated water resources management, 10 years in water -related climate change and climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation; developing water resources assessment reports, and disaster risk management institutional issues. The Team Leader should have project management capability, including min 10 yearâs experience in managing teams of national / international experts. He/she should have excellent communication skills, presentation skills and ability to prepare/manage preparation of high-quality reports, project documentation, and communications materials, as well as experience in working with projects funded by international donors in Somalia
- Hydro-climatic modelling expert with at least 15 years of relevant experience in processing and modelling of hydro-meteorological data, statistical analyses of rainfall, climate data projection and analysis, flood mapping and modelling. The expert should have profound knowledge of complex climatology and uncertainty in future precipitation development and long-term experiences with climate change projections and hydrological impact modelling as well as in communication of the results. Ability to further downscale and bias-correct climate data before applying them in impact models. Work experience in basins in the Horn of Africa. Previous work experience with Somalia and Ethiopia is an asset
How to apply
Procedures for Applying
Interested and qualified expert or consultancy are invited to apply. The following documents/information to demonstrate their qualifications.
- A technical proposal detailing applicant understanding of ToRs, proposed methodology, applicantâs CVs.
- A detailed list of similar assignments (copies of these maybe requested as necessary) that the consultant has conducted in the past.
Iwrmprocurement.moewr2020@gmail.com and copy dg@moewr.gov.so
