Consultant (Climate Change Projections)

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The specific objective of the Study is to prepare downscaled climate change projections data appropriate for selected target end – uses in the Nile Basin.

Scope of work

The consultant is required to carry out the necessary data collection/compilation, processing and preparation of GCM outputs prescreened (selected) for various target enduse applications. The scope of work shall include, but not limited to, the following: 

Work Package 1 – Data selection and preparation

The NBI has compiled a set of GCM outputs drawn from IPCC AR5 and CORDEX Africa datasets. The purpose of this task is to review available GCM and RCM outputs at NBI, quality control, and prepare the pool of climate change projections for use in this study. Key elements of WP 1 include the following:

  1. a)  Review climate change projection data compiled by NBI, identify data gaps, and recommend additional data to be downloaded;

  2. b)  Assist in downloading additional projections data to complement what has been compiled by NBI;

  3. c)  Review available global forcing data that can be used in this study, recommend specific forcing data

    for use in this study and download and prepare the data for the study;

  4. d)  Develop metadata of all projections prepared;

  5. e)  Submit the datasets together with the metadata prepared.

Work Package 2: Selection of GCM outputs

NBI intends to develop preselected climate change projections most appropriate for Nile Basin with specific target use applications at regional and national levels. The specific elements of Task 2 are described as follows:

  1. a)  Review available methods for selection of climate change models for impact studies; evaluate these methods and propose most appropriate for Nile Basin to be used in the study. The criteria shall include, among others, ability to simulate current and nearpast of major climatic systems of the Nile Basin and various target enduse of the finally selected outputs. Key enduses are:

    1. i)  Water resources planning; largely depending in changes in average water balance with emphasis on variability

    2. ii)  Flood mitigation focusing on extreme wet situations

    3. iii)  Drought mitigation focusing on extreme dry situation

  2. b)  Discuss the proposed approach/criteria to select most acceptable criteria/approach for Nile Basin;

  3. c)  Applying the selected methodology, prepare a selection of GCM outputs for Nile Basin;

  4. d)  Induct/train NBI analytic team to apply the selected methodology to cover the entire pool of GCM


Work Package 3: Downscaling and bias correction of GCM outputs

  1. a)  Review toolkits availability in the Nile Basin Decision Support System (NB DSS) and their possible use in downscaling and bias correction; the downscaling to the extent possible shall use NB DSS toolkits.

  2. b)  Review available methodology for statistical downscaling and bias correction of GCM outputs and recommend most appropriate method(s). The downscaling methods selected shall be applicable at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions for specific target uses indicated above, i.e.

    •   Water resources planning; largely depending in changes in average water balance with emphasis on variability

    •   Flood mitigation focusing on extreme wet situations

    •   Drought mitigation focusing on extreme dry situation

      The method that shall be applied shall be selected together with the client’s analytic team.

  3. c)  By applying the selected method and tools (possibly NB DSS), prepare downscaled and bias corrected climate change projections for entire pool of selected projections;

  4. d)  Induct/train NBI analytic team to apply the selected methodology for downscaling and bias correction;

    The consultant shall make available to the client’s team all toolkits developed/used in downscaling and bias correction.

Task 4: Preparation of data guide

The consultant shall prepare a guide/manual describing the pool of climate change projection data prepared in this Study. At the beginning of the Study, the consultant shall prepare an annotated outline of the guide to be agreed with the client. The guide shall, among others, include the following:

  •   Description of the data supported by metadata with key attributes;

  •   Description of how the data has been prepared, from selection to downscaling/bias correction;

  •   Recommended use of the data, i.e. target enduses, if applicable, for category of data;

  •   Any limitations/scope of use of the data 

Required experiences and Qualifications of the consultant
  •   Master’s Degree (MSc minimum, PhD preferred) in meteorology, hydrology, Water Resources Engineering, Water Resources Management, or other closely related field.

  •   Demonstrated (at least 7 years’) experience in processing of climate change projections data spanning all elements of the scope of work, i.e. processing, selection/prescreening, and downscaling for target enduses demanding finer spatial and temporal resolutions;

  •   Demonstrated experience in bias correction methods is mandatory.

  •   Skills in bigdata analysis is mandatory.

  •   Technical skills in running climate models and programming as well as in graphical and statistical tools (e.g. python, Matlab, R) are mandatory for this consultancy.

  •   Demonstrated experience in authoring technical reports.

  •   Good track record of delivering consultancies that involve processing of large volume of climate

    change projection under tight schedule is required;

  •   Fluency in English