Projection of Municipal and Industrial Water demands for the Nile Basin
1. Introduction The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is a partnership of the 10 Nile Basin riparian states with a shared vision objective to promote sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of and benefit from the shared Nile Basin water resources. NBI has three programs, namely, the Basin-Wide Program implemented by the NBI Secretariat located in Entebbe, Uganda, the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) implemented by the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) located in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) implemented by NELSAP Coordination Unit located in Kigali, Rwanda. The ENSAP and NELSAP focus on preparation and implementation facilitation of investments in water infrastructure in the Eastern Nile sub-basins and the Nile Equatorial Lakes sub-basins, respectively. The Basin-Wide Program has a geographic scope of the entire Nile Basin and focuses on facilitating the dialogue among the riparian countries, carrying out analytic work (such as strategic water resources analysis) to inform the dialogue, formulation of transboundary policies, strengthening basin monitoring and data sharing and capacity development for cooperative water resources management. To support the on-going strategic water resources analysis, the Nile-Sec intends to employ the services of an individual consultant (the Consultant) to develop projections of water demand and scenarios of water saving from key uses in the Municipal and Industrial sectors, hereinafter referred to as ‘the Assignment’. This document presents the terms of reference for the Assignment. The Consultant will be selected competitively based on Nile-Sec’s procurement procedures.
2. Background The NBI Secretariat (Nile-Sec) launched its strategic water resources analysis in 2015 and completed the first phase in 2016. The strategic water resources analysis is aimed at developing options of measures (water resources infrastructure and management options) for meeting the growing water demand in the Nile Basin sustainably reducing the stress on the river system and minimizing water allocation related tensions among the riparian countries. The first phase of the analysis focused on water supply and demand assessment and yielded estimates of water availability and water demands/uses as of 2014 and projections into 2050. Further, a Nile Basin water resources model was developed, which included existing water infrastructure and those planned to be implemented in the 2050 time horizon. According to plans compiled from the Nile Basin countries, irrigated agriculture is expected to expand approximately by 60 percent of the 2014 baseline. Further, irrigation water demand is expected to remain the main water user (estimated to consume up to 75 – 80 % of water) in the foreseeable future. According to UN estimate1 , total population of the basin countries is projected to reach 932 Million to 1.14 Billion inhabitants (low and high growth variant). Further, the proportion of the population living in urban areas is increasing with implication in water demand growth. The first phase estimated current (as of 2014) M and I water demands for selected urban centers but no projection was made for 2050. Therefore, the Nile-Sec intends to refine current estimates of M and I water demand/use and projections into the 2050 time horizon. Further, in order to support generation of options for meeting the growing water demand more efficiently, the Nile-Sec plans to develop options for water saving in the M and I water use sectors.
3. Objective The overall objective of the Assignment is to contribute towards generation of strategic options for meeting the growing water demands in the Nile Basin more efficiently and sustainably. The specific objectives of the assignment are: i) To develop refined baseline water demand and actual M and I water use for 2016 ii) To develop projection of water demands and water use estimates for Municipal and Industrial uses for the Nile Basin in the 2050 time horizon iii) Develop viable scope for water saving from the municipal and industrial water use sectors through employment of various measures, such as demand side management, adoption of water efficient technologies and reduction of losses.