International Consultant on Economically Sustainable Adaptation Planning

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

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Background

 

Turkmenistan is a water stressed country and has one of the harshest climates in the Central Asian region. Climate change modeling indicates significant increases in temperature and reduction in rainfall. Temperatures are expected to increase by 20C by 2040, with precipitation declining across all agro-ecological zones by 8-17 percent between 2040 and 2100, which coupled with increase in temperature, will lead to a decrease in total volume of water availability that is likely to have a profound impact on agricultural production systems and local farmers.  The long-term solution envisaged by the Government of Turkmenistan is to mainstream climate change adaptation at the community, district, provincial and national levels in order to secure climate resilient livelihoods in agricultural communities.  To help the Government meet these outcomes, the project will support three inter-related components, namely:

  • Improving climate related socio-economic outcomes in targeted agricultural communities in Lebap and Dashoguz velayats through the implementation of community-based adaptation solutions;
  • Mainstreaming climate adaptation measures in agricultural and water sector development strategy and policy; and
  • Strengthening national capacity for iterative climate change adaptation planning, implementation and monitoring in the country.

The project will directly strengthen the adaptive capacity and reduce the vulnerability of around 40,000 to 50,000 persons (of which around 51.2% would be women) in the Lebap and Dashoguz velayats by helping them improve the productivity of farm operations, be better prepared for increasing water scarcity and by introducing alternative income sources.  Improved water efficiency and crop production systems will bring approximately 20,000 ha of agricultural and 500,000 ha of pastoral lands under climate resilient technologies resulting in a real net household income increase of at least 15­­­% for participating households (including at least 20% of women-headed households).  The replication potential of successful efficient water management and climate resilient practices and of new climate-friendly sectoral planning, legislative and capacity development measures would indirectly benefit around 500,000 people in Turkmenistan, of which around 50% would be women).

The project will work in two etraps (districts) of two different velayats (provinces) of Turkmenistan.  These are the Gerogly etrap of Dashoguz velayat and Galkenesh etrap of Lepab velayat. The etraps were identified at the recommendation of the Government. The project has selected three pilot daikhan associations and a livestock farm in the two velayats and will start working with these daikhan associations and farms, including individual farmers/households and private farms, in the initial phase of the project to demonstrate adaptation options for various types of agricultural activities (crop production, horticulture and livestock). The pilots are the Yagtylyk daikhan association and Garagum livestock (cattle ranch) farm in the Gorogly etrap of Dashoguz velayat and the Vatan and Parakhat daikhan associations in the Galkynysh etrap of Lebap velayat.

As a decision-making tool, a clustering approach will be used to analyze the current situation and determine optimized skope of actions and possible solutions and probability of success in terms of agrotechnology, climate change and economic.

This approach based on deep learning of past climatic, soil, water conditions in area of interest and building multilevel clusterization. It enables modelling for signing similiraty and asimilarity in the area and recognition of possible gaps and its circumstances. As a result it minimizes number of actions and leverage its effectiveness.

For more detailed information about this project as well as other UNDP Turkmenistan environmental projects please visit: http://www.tm.undp.org/ .

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