Expertise: Climate Change Specialist
Expertise Group: Agriculture/Rural Development
Consultant Source: International
TOR Keywords: climate change, irrigation, agriculture
Objective and Purpose of the Assignment
Uzbekistan´s water resources depend mainly on those provided by the Amu Darya river. The water resources
of this transboundary river are practically fully allocated to different uses across the basin. This
implies Uzbekistan is highly sensitive to changes in in-country and upstream water availability. Climate
change will cause changes in the water flows: water availability, use and return flows will be altered
in many ways due to upstream changes in the high mountain regions, but also changes in water demand and
use across the river basin, partially driven by climate change. These changes in intra-annual and
seasonal variability will thus affect water security of Uzbekistan. Besides, climate change will
increase extreme events which pose a risk to existing water resources infrastructure. Water users and
uses, including the environment and the Aral Sea, will face the consequences in the next few decades if
no action is taken. Especially the agricultural sector – being the sector with the largest water
footprint in Uzbekistan, will need to transform to more resilient systems at all levels. The technical
assistance (TA) approved in August 2019 is supporting the government to enhance the river basin planning
in the Amu Darya river basin. In addition to preparing investments in representative irrigation and
drainage subprojects it will undertake a long-term and knowledge-based approach to deliver climate
adaptive solutions for water resources management.
The proposed assignment will support the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) in providing upstream
assessments on climate change impact in Amu Darya river basin and support the identification of
investment areas within Amu Darya river basin . The work will be based on the basin-wide climate
assessment as well as on the government priorities on climate change to identify additional investment
areas with an explicit focus on reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Scope of Work
The assignment will be conducted by a team of consultants consisting of 2 international individual
consultants and a national consulting firm. Jointly the consultant team will undertake upstream climate
change assessments and vulnerability mappings with the focus on water resources management, irrigation,
and agriculture production. Applying a consultative approach ‘Type 2’ adaptation investment areas in the
Amu Darya river basin will be identified and prioritized. For the assessment the consultant team will
undertake: (i) subsector climate change risk analysis including climate change, hydrological, and crop
vulnerability mapping; (ii) climate change adaptation strategic planning through a stakeholder
consultation; and (iii) pre-concept note development of priority projects.
Detailed Tasks and/or Expected Output
The climate change and adaptation assessments and strategic adaptation planning will follow a stepwise
approach:
- Basin wide climate change risk and adaptation analysis based on existing information, surveys,
consultations, and modeling in close cooperation with government counterparts and other relevant
stakeholders, including farming community. These should focus on (i) climate change impacts on water
availability and demand (drought risk, water quality, extreme precipitation, crop water demand, and
average and extreme temperatures), (ii) rural livelihoods (perceptions of climate risk, crop suitability
models, irrigation practices, existing coping strategies to deal with climate impacts etc.) (iii)
critical water related infrastructure (e.g., by overlaying of climate models and GIS maps of
infrastructure to assess the potential exposure), and (iv) policy, economic, financial, sociocultural
and gender related barriers in scaling up adaptation measures at all scale, including at farm level. In
addition, climate information systems, governance practices and adaptation planning (private and
government) should be assessed. The analysis should be used to identify infrastructure, geographies, and
populations with highest vulnerability to climate impacts and key factors for unlocking uptake of
adaptation solution at different levels. - Strategic climate change adaptation planning through a stakeholder consultation and capacity building
process. A methodology should be applied which is based on stakeholder engagement (including appropriate
provincial, federal, and civil society/community representatives), economic viability through cost
benefit analysis and prioritization of measures (through tools like adaptation pathways for portfolios
of projects comprising of infrastructure and non-infrastructure investments and/or Multi-Criteria
Decision Analysis assessing individual measures and build up portfolios from these prioritized measures,
taking into account synergies (or their opposite) of various options, the funding constraints and the
variety of actors involved) including a focus on gender inclusion, the most vulnerable communities, and
alignment with existing/ongoing adaptation planning. - Identification of priority measures and portfolios for integration into subproject development as
well as for future adaptation investment in the Amu Darya river basin. The identification will cover
shortlisting of potential investments, screening of economic feasibility and potential funding
opportunities.
The climate change specialist in close collaboration with the climate economist and national firm
support all three steps and perform following tasks:
- As team leader the specialist will coordinate the activities of the international and national
consultants in coordination with ADB project team and government counterparts, as well as lead and
supervise the preparation of reports required by ADB. - Lead the hotspot/opportunity mapping, considering the climate risk components (hazard, exposure,
vulnerability), including local livelihoods, partially data-based and model-based, partially stakeholder-
based to identify infrastructure, geographies, and populations with highest vulnerability to climate
impacts by:
o Assessing existing literature and data on climate change impacts on water availability and demand
(drought risk, water quality, extreme precipitation, crop water demand, and average and extreme
temperatures)
o Preparing a framework for integrated climate change assessment of the Amu Darya river basin.
o Producing climate risk maps of the Amu Darya river basin (within Uzbekistan) using downscaled global
climate models (e.g. CMIP6 models), existing data and water resources modeling.
Identify key hazards affecting the basins water resources with special emphasis on the agricultural
sector, considering extreme events as well as long-term processes (temperature change and water
scarcity).
Develop hazard maps, mainly relying on public domain datasets and assessment of future hazard levels
based on climate indices extracted from CMIP6 model projections
Develop and employ a water resources system model to identify vulnerabilities related to water
shortages and intra-system flow dependencies (focus on water uses especially for irrigation districts,
which have typically high return flows and indirect water re-use and pumping costs).
Map risks basin-wide, complemented with spatial vulnerability data from national sources
Prioritize areas based on the multiple risk maps
o Supporting the development of a household survey to identify needs and opportunities on adaptation
based on climate impacts, awareness and adaptation actions.
o Assessing current and future vulnerability of rural livelihoods by relating climate exposure with
livelihood information such as crop suitability, irrigation practices, existing coping strategies to
deal with climate impacts etc. (based on existing data related to cropping practices and survey data)
o Assessing critical water related infrastructure (e.g., by overlaying of climate models and GIS maps of
infrastructure to assess the potential exposure), - Support the strategic adaptation planning process and pre concept note development by:
o Identifying appropriate resilience focused investments for the Amu Darya River Basin based on the
climate vulnerability assessment and the governments priorities.
o Presenting and discussing results, findings and recommendations of the climate change and assessment
to concerned government ministries and stakeholder consultations.
o Preparing pre-concept notes of at least one prioritized adaptation investment in the Amu Darya river
basin.
Minimum Qualification Requirements
The climate change specialist will have (i) an advanced degree in climate change, environmental policy,
or a relevant discipline; (ii) at least 10 years (international) of experience in conducting climate
change vulnerability and adaptation assessments; and (iii) experience of factoring climate change
projections and climate resilience recommendations into financial analyses and decision-making. Work
experience in Central and West Asia is an advantage.
Minimum General Experience: 10 Years
Minimum Specific Experience (relevant to assignment): 10 Years
